Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
Economic trends shaping Fed's policy outlook
Economic update
May 14, 2024 | Economic indicators through mid-May remained surprisingly strong, delaying rate cuts. Recently released data raises the possibility that if there are additional signs of cooling, the central bank may move sooner than September to reduce its reference rate.
2023 Commentary
Economy can continue to expand
April 8, 2024 | Statement of Investment Policy | While incoming data last month provided confirmation the US economy can continue to expand without fanning inflation, it also suggests Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be delayed.
Read moreThe American economy has been exceptionally strong
March 11, 2024 | Economic Update | By most measures, the performance of the American economy has been exceptionally strong when contrasted with that of China and Europe which continue to struggle in this post pandemic era.
Read moreThe US economy has proven to be resilient
February 6, 2024 | Economic Update | The US economy has proven more resilient and inflation has fallen more dramatically than most forecasters anticipated when the Federal Reserve initiated its aggressive credit tightening cycle in March 2022.
Read moreDeclining inflation indicates the US can avoid recession
December 27, 2023 | Statement of Investment Policy | Declining inflation offers greater assurance the US can avoid recession by strengthening household purchasing power and enabling the central bank to reduce real interest rates sooner than many had expected.
Read moreKey indicators have shown notable cooling
December 11, 2023 | Economic Update | Consumer spending, inflation, and the job market have shown notable cooling in recent weeks, moving the US economy closer to the Federal Reserve’s preferred glide path toward a “soft landing.”
Read moreStrong employment + consumer spending drive growth
November 6, 2023 | Economic Update | Strong employment gains and a burst of consumer spending combined to power estimated third quarter economic growth to 4.9%, marking the most rapid quarterly advance since 2014, the fastest pace since late 2021,
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