Commentary library
February 28, 2026
The longest government shutdown in history leads to weaker-than-expected economic expansion
A sharp drop in public sector spending last quarter, reflecting the longest government shutdown in history, held GDP growth to 1.4%, a far weaker rate of expansion than the 2.5% economists had expected and well short of the 4.3% third quarter gain.
January 29, 2026
We continue to expect the above-trend GDP growth the US economy showed in the second half of 2025 to persist in the coming months
We continue to expect the above-trend GDP growth the US economy showed in the second half of 2025 to persist in the coming months, as a recovery in business sentiment from depressed levels and tax incentives embedded in President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) enacted last July will lead to a rebound in job gains and in non-tech business capital spending.
January 12, 2026
Despite only modest job growth in 2025, the US economy has remained notably resilient
Despite only modest job growth in 2025 and a deceleration in real wage gains, the US economy has remained notably resilient.
December 8, 2025
The US economy remains on solid footing, resilient, expanding at a moderate pace
The US economy in the final weeks of the year remains on solid footing, resilient, expanding at a moderate pace. Yet, it is contending with a mixed set of forces as overall growth has notably slowed amid restrictive financial conditions and unpredictable trade policies.
November 17, 2025
It appears the US economy has remained solid, expanding at a modest pace Share this article
During a period in which many key federal statistical publications have been delayed, the US economy has remained solid, expanding at a modest pace.
October 17, 2025
The US economy remains stable, with moderate overall growth
Data, surveys and anecdotal evidence we have cobbled together since the government shutdown confirms the US economy remained “stable” over the past several weeks, perhaps growing a bit more moderately overall, according to the latest Fed Beige Book.
September 8, 2025
Far fewer jobs had been gained in May and June than previously reported
In a year replete with economic and policy surprises, probably most notable were the early August downward revisions to the Labor Department’s non-farm payroll gains for the months of May and June, which showed far fewer jobs had been gained in those months than previously reported.
July 23, 2025
Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient.
Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient following a flat first quarter, anchored by consumer outlays which rebounded sharply in June.
June 6, 2025
Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated
Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated, contracting slightly at a -0.2% annualized rate, as net exports subtracted nearly five percentage points from real GDP.
May 6, 2025
Hard economic data shows the US economy continuing to expand
Hard economic data, including nonfarm payrolls, headline retail sales, durable goods orders and existing home sales, show the US economy continuing to expand.
March 27, 2025
There is little evidence the US Economy is slowing materially or that a recession is imminent
With the Federal Reserve now firmly on hold awaiting greater clarity from incoming data, attention has shifted to focusing on "separating the signal from the noise," as analysts attempt to digest the effects of the administration's proposed policy changes which have elevated uncertainty for economic activity.
February 24, 2025
New tariffs and proposals have the potential to cloud the economic outlook
The new administration has produced an array of tariffs and proposals which have the potential to create supply chain strains, clouding the economic outlook.
January 27, 2025
The US economy remains on pace for a soft landing
Recent employment, consumer spending, and inflation data confirm the US economy remains on pace for the soft landing we have been expecting.
December 16, 2024
Downward revisions to forecasts for US central bank rate cuts in 2025
The combination of resilient GDP growth, an uptick in inflation and uncertainties over likely public policy changes including tariffs and immigration, have triggered downward revisions to forecasts for US central bank rate cuts in 2025.
November 12, 2024
The US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate
Aside from some unexpected weakness in last month’s job report, the US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate, gradually closing in on the economic soft-landing Federal Reserve officials have sought.
September 24, 2024
This is a pivotal moment for the central bank
The Federal Reserve’s decision last week to lower its reference rate by 50 basis points, choosing to unleash its long-awaited credit easing cycle more aggressively than many economists had anticipated, represents a major recalibration of monetary policy, away from a rigid focus on inflation to a broader effort to assure a recent weakening of the labor market does not spiral out of control leading to a hard landing.
August 16, 2024
The US economy continues to slowly decelerate as monetary policy gradually gains traction
Economic data shows the US economy continues to slowly decelerate as the restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy of the past two years gradually gains traction.
July 18, 2024
Wake gradually slowing US economy inflation eased substantially last month
Incoming economic data shows that in the wake of the gradually slowing US economy inflation eased substantially last month, extending the recent downward drift in consumer price increases, setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to begin easing credit conditions by the end of this summer.
June 18, 2024
The US economy remains resilient in face of Fed policy
Recently released economic data shows that overall, the US economy has remained resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive monetary policy, continuing to expand at a solid rate, but showing some signs of deceleration from last year’s torrid pace.
May 14, 2024
Economic trends shaping Fed's policy outlook
Economic indicators through mid-May remained surprisingly strong, delaying rate cuts. Recently released data raises the possibility that if there are additional signs of cooling, the central bank may move sooner than September to reduce its reference rate.
April 8, 2024
The US economy can continue to expand without fanning inflation
While incoming data last month provided confirmation the US economy can continue to expand without fanning inflation, it also suggests Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be delayed.
March 11, 2024
The American economy has been exceptionally strong
By most measures, the performance of the American economy has been exceptionally strong when contrasted with that of China and Europe which continue to struggle in this post pandemic era
February 6, 2024
The US economy is resilient
US economy is resilient and inflation has declined