Commentary

We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process. 

 

Monthly Economic Model

The US economy is resilient

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February 6, 2024 | The US economy has proven more resilient and inflation has fallen more dramatically than most forecasters anticipated when the Federal Reserve initiated its aggressive credit tightening cycle in March 2022.

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2023 Commentary

Declining inflation offers greater assurance the US can avoid recession

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December 27, 2023 | Statement of Investment Policy | Declining inflation, probably the most important financial influence impacting our economy in 2024, offers greater assurance the US can avoid recession by strengthening household purchasing power and enabling the central bank to reduce real interest rates sooner than many had expected.

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Consumer spending, inflation, and the job market have shown notable cooling

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December 11, 2023 | Economic Update | Consumer spending, inflation, and the job market have shown notable cooling in recent weeks, moving the US economy closer to the Federal Reserve’s preferred glide path toward a “soft landing.”

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Strong employment + consumer spending drive growth

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November 6, 2023 | Economic Update | Strong employment gains and a burst of consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of real GDP, combined to power estimated third quarter economic growth to 4.9%, marking the most rapid quarterly advance since 2014, the fastest pace since late 2021, and more than twice the 2.1% rate of the prior three months.

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Economic data tells largely positive story

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September 25, 2023 | Statement of Investment Policy | Economic data released late this Summer tell a largely positive story: The economy grew more rapidly than expected earlier in the year despite the most aggressive Federal Reserve tightening in 40 years, increasing the likelihood of Fed’s hoped for “soft landing.”

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US economy remains resilient

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September 5, 2023 | Economic Update | Despite the tightest monetary policy regime in 40 years, the US economy remains resilient, expanding at an above-trend pace, and showing few signs of the widely forecast recession investors feared coming into this year.

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Economy gaining momentum

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August 1, 2023 | Statement of Investment Policy | Data we have seen since our June Economic Update shows the US economy gained momentum this Spring.

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