Commentary

We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process. 

 

Monthly Economic Model

Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated

ECONOMIC UPDATE

June 6, 2025 | Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated, contracting slightly at a -0.2% annualized rate, as net exports subtracted nearly five percentage points from real GDP.

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Recent Commentary

Hard economic data shows US economy continue expansion

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May 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Statement of Investment Policy | Hard economic data, including nonfarm payrolls, headline retail sales, durable goods orders and existing home sales, show the US economy continuing to expand.

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There is little evidence the US Economy is slowing materially

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March 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | With the Federal Reserve now firmly on hold awaiting greater clarity from incoming data, attention has shifted to focusing on "separating the signal from the noise," as analysts attempt to digest the effects of the administration's proposed policy changes which have elevated uncertainty for economic activity.

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New tariffs and proposals cloud outlook

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February 24, 2025 | Economic Update | The new administration has produced an array of tariffs and proposals which have the potential to create supply chain strains, clouding the economic outlook.

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The US economy remains on pace for a soft landing

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January 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | Recent employment, consumer spending, and inflation data confirm the US economy remains on pace for the soft landing we have been expecting.

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Downward revisions to forecasts for rate cuts

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December 16, 2024 | Economic update | The combination of resilient GDP growth, an uptick in inflation and uncertainties over likely public policy changes including tariffs and immigration, have triggered downward revisions to forecasts for US central bank rate cuts in 2025.

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The US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate

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November 12, 2024 | Economic Update | Aside from some unexpected weakness in last month’s job report, the US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate, gradually closing in on the economic soft-landing Federal Reserve officials have sought.

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