Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
The US economy remains on pace for a soft landing
statement of investment policy
January 27, 2025 | Recent employment, consumer spending, and inflation data confirm the US economy remains on pace for the soft landing we have been expecting.
Recent Commentary
Downward revisions to forecasts for rate cuts
December 16, 2024 | Economic update | The combination of resilient GDP growth, an uptick in inflation and uncertainties over likely public policy changes including tariffs and immigration, have triggered downward revisions to forecasts for US central bank rate cuts in 2025.
Read moreThe US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate
November 12, 2024 | Economic Update | Aside from some unexpected weakness in last month’s job report, the US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate, gradually closing in on the economic soft-landing Federal Reserve officials have sought.
Read moreThis is a pivotal moment for the central bank
September 24, 2024 | Statement of Investment Policy | The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its reference rate by 50 basis points represents a major recalibration of monetary policy.
Read moreThe US economy has proven to be resilient
August 16, 2024 | Economic Update | Economic data shows the US economy continues to slowly decelerate as the restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy of the past two years gradually gains traction.
Read moreInflation eased substantially last month
July 18, 2024 | Economic Update | Incoming economic data shows that in the wake of the gradually slowing US economy inflation eased substantially last month, extending the recent downward drift in consumer price increases, setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to begin easing credit conditions by the end of this summer.
Read moreThe US economy remains resilient
June 18, 2024 | Economic Update | Recently released economic data shows that overall, the US economy has remained resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive monetary policy, continuing to expand at a solid rate, but showing some signs of deceleration from last year’s torrid pace.
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