Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
There is little evidence the US Economy is slowing materially or that a recession is imminent
statement of investment policy
March 27, 2025 | With the Federal Reserve now firmly on hold awaiting greater clarity from incoming data, attention has shifted to focusing on "separating the signal from the noise," as analysts attempt to digest the effects of the administration's proposed policy changes which have elevated uncertainty for economic activity.
Recent Commentary
New tarrifs and proposals cloud outlook
February 24, 2025 | Economic Update | The new administration has produced an array of tariffs and proposals which have the potential to create supply chain strains, clouding the economic outlook.
Read moreThe US economy remains on pace for a soft landing
January 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | Recent employment, consumer spending, and inflation data confirm the US economy remains on pace for the soft landing we have been expecting.
Read moreDownward revisions to forecasts for rate cuts
December 16, 2024 | Economic update | The combination of resilient GDP growth, an uptick in inflation and uncertainties over likely public policy changes including tariffs and immigration, have triggered downward revisions to forecasts for US central bank rate cuts in 2025.
Read moreThe US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate
November 12, 2024 | Economic Update | Aside from some unexpected weakness in last month’s job report, the US economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate, gradually closing in on the economic soft-landing Federal Reserve officials have sought.
Read moreThis is a pivotal moment for the central bank
September 24, 2024 | Statement of Investment Policy | The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its reference rate by 50 basis points represents a major recalibration of monetary policy.
Read moreThe US economy has proven to be resilient
August 16, 2024 | Economic Update | Economic data shows the US economy continues to slowly decelerate as the restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy of the past two years gradually gains traction.
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