Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient
ECONOMIC UPDATE
July 23, 2025 | Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient following a flat first quarter, anchored by consumer outlays which rebounded sharply in June.
Recent Commentary
Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated
June 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated, contracting slightly at a -0.2% annualized rate, as net exports subtracted nearly five percentage points from real GDP.age points from real GDP.
Read moreHard economic data shows US economy continue expansion
May 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Hard economic data, including nonfarm payrolls, headline retail sales, durable goods orders and existing home sales, show the US economy continuing to expand.
Read moreThere is little evidence the US Economy is slowing materially
March 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | With the Federal Reserve now firmly on hold awaiting greater clarity from incoming data, attention has shifted to focusing on "separating the signal from the noise," as analysts attempt to digest the effects of the administration's proposed policy changes which have elevated uncertainty for economic activity.
Read moreNew tariffs and proposals cloud outlook
February 24, 2025 | Economic Update | The new administration has produced an array of tariffs and proposals which have the potential to create supply chain strains, clouding the economic outlook.
Read moreThe US economy remains on pace for a soft landing
January 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | Recent employment, consumer spending, and inflation data confirm the US economy remains on pace for the soft landing we have been expecting.
Read moreDownward revisions to forecasts for rate cuts
December 16, 2024 | Economic update | The combination of resilient GDP growth, an uptick in inflation and uncertainties over likely public policy changes including tariffs and immigration, have triggered downward revisions to forecasts for US central bank rate cuts in 2025.
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