Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
The US economy remains stable, with moderate overall growth
Statement of Investment Policy
October 17, 2025 | Data, surveys and anecdotal evidence we have cobbled together since the government shutdown confirms the US economy remained “stable” over the past several weeks, perhaps growing a bit more moderately overall, according to the latest Fed Beige Book.
Recent Commentary
Far fewer jobs had been gained in May and June than previously reported.
September 8, 2025 | Economic Update | In a year replete with economic and policy surprises, probably most notable were the early August downward revisions to the Labor Department’s non-farm payroll gains for the months of May and June, which showed far fewer jobs had been gained in those months than previously reported.
Read moreDespite multiple headwinds, the US economy proves stubbornly resilient
July 23, 2025 | Economic Update | Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient following a flat first quarter, anchored by consumer outlays which rebounded sharply in June.
Read moreEconomic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated
June 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated, contracting slightly at a -0.2% annualized rate, as net exports subtracted nearly five percentage points from real GDP.age points from real GDP.
Read moreHard economic data shows US economy continue expansion
May 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Hard economic data, including nonfarm payrolls, headline retail sales, durable goods orders and existing home sales, show the US economy continuing to expand.
Read moreThere is little evidence the US Economy is slowing materially
March 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | With the Federal Reserve now firmly on hold awaiting greater clarity from incoming data, attention has shifted to focusing on "separating the signal from the noise," as analysts attempt to digest the effects of the administration's proposed policy changes which have elevated uncertainty for economic activity.
Read moreNew tariffs and proposals cloud outlook
February 24, 2025 | Economic Update | The new administration has produced an array of tariffs and proposals which have the potential to create supply chain strains, clouding the economic outlook.
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