Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
The longest government shutdown in history leads to weaker-than-expected economic expansion
February 28, 2026
A sharp drop in public sector spending last quarter, reflecting the longest government shutdown in history, held GDP growth to 1.4%, a far weaker rate of expansion than the 2.5% economists had expected and well short of the 4.3% third quarter gain.
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We continue to expect the above-trend GDP growth the US economy showed in the second half of 2025 to persist in the coming months
We continue to expect the above-trend GDP growth the US economy showed in the second half of 2025 to persist in the coming months.
Despite only modest job growth in 2025, the US economy has remained notably resilient
The US economy has remained notably resilient.
The US economy remains on solid footing, resilient, expanding at a moderate pace
The US economy remains on solid footing, resilient, expanding at a moderate pace
It appears the US economy has remained solid, expanding at a modest pace Share this article
During a period in which many key federal statistical publications have been delayed, the US economy has remained solid, expanding at a modest pace.
The US economy remains stable, with moderate overall growth
Data, surveys and anecdotal evidence we have cobbled together since the government shutdown confirms the US economy remained “stable” over the past several weeks, perhaps growing a bit more moderately overall, according to the latest Fed Beige Book.
Far fewer jobs had been gained in May and June than previously reported
In a year replete with economic and policy surprises, probably most notable were the early August downward revisions to the Labor Department’s non-farm payroll gains for the months of May and June, which showed far fewer jobs had been gained in those months than previously reported.
