Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
Despite only modest job growth in 2025, the US economy has remained notably resilient
economic update
January 12, 2026 | Despite only modest job growth in 2025 and a deceleration in real wage gains, the US economy has remained notably resilient.
Recent Commentary
The US economy remains on solid footing
December 8, 2025 | Economic Update | The US economy remains on solid footing, resilient, expanding at a moderate pace
Read moreThe US economy remains stable, with moderate overall growth
November 17, 2025 | Economic Update | During a period in which many key federal statistical publications have been delayed, the US economy has remained solid, expanding at a modest pace.
Read moreThe US economy remains stable, with moderate overall growth
October 17, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | Data, surveys and anecdotal evidence we have cobbled together since the government shutdown confirms the US economy remained “stable” over the past several weeks, perhaps growing a bit more moderately overall, according to the latest Fed Beige Book.
Read moreFar fewer jobs had been gained in May and June than previously reported
September 8, 2025 | Economic Update | In a year replete with economic and policy surprises, probably most notable were the early August downward revisions to the Labor Department’s non-farm payroll gains for the months of May and June, which showed far fewer jobs had been gained in those months than previously reported.
Read moreDespite multiple headwinds, the US economy proves stubbornly resilient
July 23, 2025 | Economic Update | Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient following a flat first quarter, anchored by consumer outlays which rebounded sharply in June.
Read moreEconomic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated
June 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated, contracting slightly at a -0.2% annualized rate, as net exports subtracted nearly five percentage points from real GDP.age points from real GDP.
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