Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
In the wake of the gradually slowing US economy, inflation eased substantially last month
economic update
July 18, 2024 | Incoming economic data shows that in the wake of the gradually slowing US economy inflation eased substantially last month, extending the recent downward drift in consumer price increases, setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to begin easing credit conditions by the end of this summer.
2024 Commentary
The US economy remains resilient
June 18, 2024 | Economic Update | Recently released economic data shows that overall, the US economy has remained resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive monetary policy, continuing to expand at a solid rate, but showing some signs of deceleration from last year’s torrid pace.
Read moreEconomic trends shaping Fed's policy outlook
May 14, 2024 | Economic update | Economic indicators through mid-May remained surprisingly strong, delaying rate cuts. Recently released data raises the possibility that if there are additional signs of cooling, the central bank may move sooner than September to reduce its reference rate.
Read moreEconomy can continue to expand
April 8, 2024 | Statement of Investment Policy | While incoming data last month provided confirmation the US economy can continue to expand without fanning inflation, it also suggests Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be delayed.
Read moreThe American economy has been exceptionally strong
March 11, 2024 | Economic Update | By most measures, the performance of the American economy has been exceptionally strong when contrasted with that of China and Europe which continue to struggle in this post pandemic era.
Read moreThe US economy has proven to be resilient
February 6, 2024 | Economic Update | The US economy has proven more resilient and inflation has fallen more dramatically than most forecasters anticipated when the Federal Reserve initiated its aggressive credit tightening cycle in March 2022.
Read moreDeclining inflation indicates the US can avoid recession
December 27, 2023 | Statement of Investment Policy | Declining inflation offers greater assurance the US can avoid recession by strengthening household purchasing power and enabling the central bank to reduce real interest rates sooner than many had expected.
Read more