Commentary

We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process. 

 

Monthly Economic Model

This is a pivotal moment for the central bank

Statement of investment policy

September 24, 2024 | The Federal Reserve’s decision last week to lower its reference rate by 50 basis points, choosing to unleash its long-awaited credit easing cycle more aggressively than many economists had anticipated, represents a major recalibration of monetary policy, away from a rigid focus on inflation to a broader effort to assure a recent weakening of the labor market does not spiral out of control leading to a hard landing.

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2024 Commentary

The US economy has proven to be resilient

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August 16, 2024 | Economic Update | Economic data shows the US economy continues to slowly decelerate as the restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policy of the past two years gradually gains traction.

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Inflation eased substantially last month

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July 18, 2024 | Economic Update | Incoming economic data shows that in the wake of the gradually slowing US economy inflation eased substantially last month, extending the recent downward drift in consumer price increases, setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to begin easing credit conditions by the end of this summer.

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The US economy remains resilient

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June 18, 2024 | Economic Update | Recently released economic data shows that overall, the US economy has remained resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive monetary policy, continuing to expand at a solid rate, but showing some signs of deceleration from last year’s torrid pace.

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Economic trends shaping Fed's policy outlook

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May 14, 2024 | Economic update | Economic indicators through mid-May remained surprisingly strong, delaying rate cuts. Recently released data raises the possibility that if there are additional signs of cooling, the central bank may move sooner than September to reduce its reference rate.

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Economy can continue to expand

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April 8, 2024 | Statement of Investment Policy | While incoming data last month provided confirmation the US economy can continue to expand without fanning inflation, it also suggests Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may be delayed.

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The American economy has been exceptionally strong

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March 11, 2024 | Economic Update | By most measures, the performance of the American economy has been exceptionally strong when contrasted with that of China and Europe which continue to struggle in this post pandemic era.

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