Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
Government shutdown leads to weaker-than-expected economic expansion
economic update
February 28, 2026 | A sharp drop in public sector spending last quarter, reflecting the longest government shutdown in history, held GDP growth to 1.4%, a far weaker rate of expansion than the 2.5% economists had expected and well short of the 4.3% third quarter gain.
Recent Commentary
We expect US GDP growth to continue
January 29, 2026 | We continue to expect the above-trend US GDP growth to persist in the coming months.
Read moreThe US economy has remained notably resilient
January 12, 2026 | The US economy has remained notably resilient..
Read moreThe US economy remains on solid footing
December 8, 2025 | Economic Update | The US economy remains on solid footing, resilient, expanding at a moderate pace
Read moreThe US economy remains stable, with moderate overall growth
November 17, 2025 | Economic Update | During a period in which many key federal statistical publications have been delayed, the US economy has remained solid, expanding at a modest pace.
Read moreThe US economy remains stable, with moderate overall growth
October 17, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | Data, surveys and anecdotal evidence we have cobbled together since the government shutdown confirms the US economy remained “stable” over the past several weeks, perhaps growing a bit more moderately overall, according to the latest Fed Beige Book.
Read moreFar fewer jobs had been gained in May and June than previously reported
September 8, 2025 | Economic Update | In a year replete with economic and policy surprises, probably most notable were the early August downward revisions to the Labor Department’s non-farm payroll gains for the months of May and June, which showed far fewer jobs had been gained in those months than previously reported.
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