Commentary
We provide insights on key macroeconomic trends — monetary policy, labor trends and interest rate trends — that inform our investment process.
Far fewer jobs had been gained in May and June than previously reported.
ECONOMIC UPDATE
September 8, 2025 | In a year replete with economic and policy surprises, probably most notable were the early August downward revisions to the Labor Department’s non-farm payroll gains for the months of May and June, which showed far fewer jobs had been gained in those months than previously reported.
Recent Commentary
Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy proves stubbornly resilient
July 23, 2025 | Economic Update | Despite multiple headwinds, the US economy is proving stubbornly resilient following a flat first quarter, anchored by consumer outlays which rebounded sharply in June.
Read moreEconomic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated
June 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Economic activity in the first quarter of the year decelerated, contracting slightly at a -0.2% annualized rate, as net exports subtracted nearly five percentage points from real GDP.age points from real GDP.
Read moreHard economic data shows US economy continue expansion
May 6, 2025 | Economic Update | Hard economic data, including nonfarm payrolls, headline retail sales, durable goods orders and existing home sales, show the US economy continuing to expand.
Read moreThere is little evidence the US Economy is slowing materially
March 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | With the Federal Reserve now firmly on hold awaiting greater clarity from incoming data, attention has shifted to focusing on "separating the signal from the noise," as analysts attempt to digest the effects of the administration's proposed policy changes which have elevated uncertainty for economic activity.
Read moreNew tariffs and proposals cloud outlook
February 24, 2025 | Economic Update | The new administration has produced an array of tariffs and proposals which have the potential to create supply chain strains, clouding the economic outlook.
Read moreThe US economy remains on pace for a soft landing
January 27, 2025 | Statement of Investment Policy | Recent employment, consumer spending, and inflation data confirm the US economy remains on pace for the soft landing we have been expecting.
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