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Economic Model

Overview

Our Economic Model, using publicly available data, is designed to signal changes in the direction of the US economy six to nine months in advance of a turning point. Readings of the Model inform our investment research process. It cannot be expected to forecast recessions caused by exogenous shocks or public policy decisions. It is not a stock market timing tool.

July’s negative reading of our firm’s Economic Model has brought the index down to trend, still signaling expansion, but elevating concerns about future growth as noted in our recent client letters.

Economic Model | july 26, 2024

There are inherent limitations in economic modeling. There can therefore be no assurance that our Economic Model will accurately predict future directional movements in the US economy.

The information provided herein is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any Mesirow or Front Barnett investment vehicle. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of Mesirow and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of Mesirow and its affiliates.

Front Barnett is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this report. The information contained in this report does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities from any Mesirow entity to the reader and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.

Front Barnett is a division of the Wealth Management business of Mesirow Financial Investment Management, Inc. (“MFIM”). Mesirow refers to Mesirow Financial Holdings, Inc. and its divisions, subsidiaries and affiliates. The Mesirow and Front Barnett name and logo are registered service marks of Mesirow Financial Holdings, Inc. © 2024, Mesirow Financial Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Advisory Fees are described in Front Barnett’s Form ADV Part 2A. Advisory services offered through Mesirow Financial Investment Management, Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor.